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Social Security’s 2027 COLA Forecast Just Changed – Here’s What Retirees Should Know

May 28, 2026 · Retirement Life
A collage showing a Social Security check being squeezed in the middle by a stethoscope and a Medicare Part B bottle.
A stethoscope squeezes a 2027 Social Security card as Medicare Part B premiums impact retiree payments.

The Medicare Part B Squeeze on Retiree Payment Changes

You cannot accurately forecast your 2027 cash flow without factoring in Medicare Part B. For the vast majority of retirees, Medicare Part B premiums are deducted directly from their Social Security checks before the money ever hits their bank account. When the official COLA is announced in October, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) usually announces the new Part B premiums shortly afterward.

Because healthcare inflation traditionally outpaces general economic inflation, Medicare premiums often rise at a faster percentage rate than your Social Security benefit. If your gross benefit increases by $40, but the standard Medicare Part B premium increases by $15, your net gain is only $25. This “squeeze” is the primary reason many retirees feel like they never actually see their cost-of-living adjustments.

Fortunately, federal law includes a consumer protection mechanism known as the “hold harmless” provision. This rule prevents your standard Medicare Part B premium increase from being larger than your Social Security COLA. In simple terms: your net Social Security check cannot go down from one year to the next simply because Medicare premiums rose. If the Medicare increase is larger than your COLA, your premium increase is legally capped at the exact dollar amount of your COLA.

However, the hold harmless provision does not apply to everyone. You are not protected if:

  • You are a new Medicare enrollee in 2027.
  • You pay your Medicare premiums directly to CMS rather than having them deducted from your Social Security check.
  • You are subject to the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) because your modified adjusted gross income exceeds certain thresholds.
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54 responses to “Social Security’s 2027 COLA Forecast Just Changed – Here’s What Retirees Should Know”

  1. Marsha says:
    June 7, 2026 at 12:00 am

    UNSUBSCRIBE ME!

    Reply
  2. ronald hanny says:
    June 8, 2026 at 12:04 am

    Rich get richer and the poor get poorer

    Reply
  3. Alma Cruz Heying says:
    June 11, 2026 at 9:21 pm

    I do t think we should pay taxes on our social security. We already payed taxes while we worked all those years. We can barely afford groceries and bill. Medicare part F is so high we’re paying over 659.00 a month for my husband and 397.00 for mine there goes our SSI check

    Reply
  4. Sandra Duncan says:
    June 12, 2026 at 6:33 am

    How are suppose to buy food and our medicine. Everything keeps going up and there is not enough money left to pay rent, food, medicine. So poor gets poorer and there is no middle class only rich and richer. Soon there will be more homeless seniors on the streets cause we can’t afford the rent in increases. Thanks Mr Trump maybe your daddy can help us older people out. Hope one day you will be walking in our shoes. Trying to figure out to have some shelter or food to eat, or be sick or die

    Reply
  5. Todd CLARKE says:
    June 12, 2026 at 6:18 pm

    Why should someone who pays less get more? The more u pay……the more u get.

    Reply
  6. Debi says:
    June 12, 2026 at 7:45 pm

    Seniors are a after thought. Food prices rising, utilities increasing and insurance is mandatory. Insurance is a poor example of what we all worked our life for. Nothing – mandatory pay into social security, along with Uncle Sam. Then Uncle Sam says nope, we will put you a allowance. Here’s your sign.

    Reply
  7. John marth says:
    June 13, 2026 at 6:57 am

    100% inflation 1%-2 cola past 3 yrs?

    Reply
  8. Lance Ide says:
    June 13, 2026 at 7:11 pm

    Inflation cooling, I don’t think so. May 4.2 and April 3.8, Fed’s probably going to have to increase the fed rate to slow down inflation. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Reply
  9. Lisa says:
    June 16, 2026 at 9:58 am

    By the time I am old enough to retire, there won’t be any Social Security left. Speaking of the left, we need to thank them for blowing all of this up for us and you know what, they’re not the ones losing any sleep over all of this! I totally agree, the rich get richer, forget the middle class, there isn’t one! All we can really do is pray, let the good Lord take over, he will provide.

    Reply
  10. Larry Minor says:
    June 16, 2026 at 9:42 pm

    Looks like Click Bait to me. You can “Search” COLA 2027, and even recent, hours old articles, say the exact opposite! Some state that the 2027 COLA could be the largest in years! Why do people post articles like this, that only contribute to fear and anxiety. Well, I think we all know why…. Advertisers. I’m sick of click bait. One doesn’t know what to believe anymore.

    Reply
  11. Larry Minor says:
    June 16, 2026 at 9:43 pm

    Looks like Click Bait to me. You can “Search” COLA 2027, and even recent, hours old articles, say the exact opposite! Some state that the 2027 COLA could be the largest in years! Why do people post articles like this, that only contribute to fear and anxiety. Well, I think we all know why…. Advertisers. I’m sick of click bait. One doesn’t know what to believe anymore.

    Reply
  12. Allen Bettigole says:
    June 20, 2026 at 5:05 pm

    I haven’t paid taxes on my SS in 8 years. If you are paying taxes on SS you are raking in a lot of money.

    Reply
  13. Kim says:
    June 23, 2026 at 11:16 pm

    How is this Trump’s fault?? Thus has been an issue way before him!!

    Reply
  14. Robert Wortman says:
    June 25, 2026 at 2:29 pm

    They make it sound like receiving SS is a gift or reward, it is our money! Paying taxes on it twice is a total rip off and manipulation that is so wrong. BOTH parties are at fault, but having a figure head as crude and disreputable as Trump is a total embarrassment. To think we are celebrating our 250 anniversary with Trump as our president is unfathomable, and such a shame. His horde of advisers and enablers are a disgrace….right little Mario!

    Reply
  15. D Parcell says:
    June 26, 2026 at 11:51 am

    More TDS. Get professional help.

    Reply
  16. Laura Clemens says:
    June 28, 2026 at 3:07 am

    i have been collecting social security for a few years now and have never paid taxes on it. the only way you need to pay taxes when you’re collecting social security is if you have other forms of income – you need to pay taxes on those, not social security itself.

    Reply
  17. Charles Deye says:
    June 29, 2026 at 12:46 pm

    Because Regan passed a bill so a president can burrow money from social security. Bush Jr. took 2.9 trillions from social security. And the Republicans never paid it back.

    Reply
  18. Betty Boop says:
    July 1, 2026 at 11:56 am

    Just gimme gimme gimme my money!I earned it!

    Reply
  19. Deb Conner says:
    July 1, 2026 at 5:50 pm

    Dump will never be in your proverbial shoes; he is a thief and grifter and steals from everyone.

    Reply
  20. Brian Govoni says:
    July 1, 2026 at 8:00 pm

    Congress should replace the money they took from SS, then maybe we could get enough to live on….Crooks….

    Reply
  21. Ron G says:
    July 2, 2026 at 1:56 pm

    I tend to agree with you, Mr. Minor. A “quick search” yields the following:

    The official 2027 Social Security COLA will be announced by the Social Security Administration on October 14, 2026, and will be based on inflation data from July through September 2026. Current forecasts project a significant increase, with The Senior Citizens League estimating 3.8% and independent analyst Mary Johnson forecasting as high as 4.7%.

    If the 3.8% estimate holds, the average monthly benefit for retired workers would rise by approximately $79 to $2,160. This projected increase is driven by elevated inflation, particularly in energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, marking a potential “good news/bad news” scenario where higher payouts offset high consumer prices but strain Social Security trust funds. — AI-generated answer. Please verify critical facts.

    This site could just unsubscribe me … except for the great probability that they would just list my info with dozens of other names they go by and/or sell my info; with the final result that I would receive 5 to 10 times the number of “junk” emails that I now do. I’m not sure when “Unsubscribe me” became an automatic “Please send me a lot more emails and sell my info to lots of others like you that I do not wish to hear from.”

    Reply
  22. George says:
    July 2, 2026 at 3:11 pm

    And most of us did not pay taxes on SS, even when the 50% tax began in 1983, as the income levels for taxing were more than most retired folks income, then they jacked it to 85% but the income levels did not equal inflation. Retirees should pay zip if their income is under 100K . Never be fixed unless we put Congress and federal employees on SS instead of their inflated retirement plan we have to pay for.

    Reply
  23. Gary Hobbs says:
    July 2, 2026 at 5:36 pm

    We have always been puppets for the rich and nothing has or will ever change, they get richer and we get poorer. I am moving to PVR Mexico area where it is paradise and much cheaper to live.

    Reply
  24. Cms says:
    July 3, 2026 at 2:47 am

    Thank you, he had nothing to do with it!

    Reply
  25. Jose L Cruz Garcia says:
    July 4, 2026 at 5:22 pm

    What do you mean by racking a lot of money .? Im paying taxes on my SS money.

    Reply
  26. Rosetta severance says:
    July 4, 2026 at 11:05 pm

    I have to add this, I keep getting mail. Wanting money for congress to pass the cola which they tell me I am owed by government 1200 dollars. They do not do their jobs,I am done voting for them,

    Reply
  27. liz says:
    July 5, 2026 at 10:55 pm

    Boy ain’t that the truth!!!
    My husband and I live on approx 1,700.00 a month, combined! And im not complaining, except for the fact they’re giving illegalls
    3k a month, free food, free Healthcare, and paying there rent, and they’ve NEVER worked a day in our country and never paid a CENT in taxes!! Low Income seniors keep getting screwed, over an over!!

    Reply
  28. Terry says:
    July 6, 2026 at 12:07 am

    Its not his fault, he’s the one who pushed to give everyone the big tax cuts and did just that while every single democrat voted to raise our taxes. Stock market is up, unemployment is down and so is inflation. Gas did go up for a couple months and he told us it was gonna go up for a little while before we knew about Iran but now it’s back under $3.00 gal the economy is the strongest it’s been in years. Only people that want to take money away from you is the usual suspects…. the same ones that keep making up all the lies about our President and somehow you believe them. By the way, this website comes out of Romania so don’t believe everything you read

    Reply
  29. Joe Herbert Joyner says:
    July 7, 2026 at 1:29 am

    What country do you live in?

    Reply
  30. Curtis Webb says:
    July 7, 2026 at 7:44 pm

    Let all government employees put into Social security like the rest of us instead of the retirement program they voted in for themselves.
    In addition, remove the cap on the income that the SSA gets. Why should those who make more than $189,000 (or whatever the cap currently is) pay no more than someone fortunate enough to make the cap. People such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos etc. wouldn’t miss the small percentage that would go into Social Security but the benefits to those who depend on it could be easily covered.

    Reply
  31. George D Paul says:
    July 8, 2026 at 6:24 pm

    Disgusting!

    Reply
  32. JOHN says:
    July 8, 2026 at 7:10 pm

    Gotta take care of ISRAEL FIRST

    Reply
  33. Doug says:
    July 13, 2026 at 3:30 am

    Senators and congressmen should be the first to feel any pinch in the wallet. Oh! Take away a lot of their perks so that they really understand any damage they do.

    Reply
  34. Tired of it. says:
    July 18, 2026 at 4:41 am

    The inflation kicked in on Biden’s watch. Remember all of that free covid money. That was the start amongst other things. TDS any.

    Reply
  35. Marianne Gerardi says:
    July 21, 2026 at 6:34 pm

    Our esteemed former President Ronald Regan is the one who instituted taxing or “Double Taxing” Social Security in order to fund his Tax Cuts for the “Rich & Famous”. But then again, it was our other esteemed former President Richard Nixon who “Opened the Doors to China” in February 1972 and former President Bill Clinton championed China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and look how that turned out. However, when Bill Clinton left office in January 2001, the U.S. Treasury had a unified federal budget surplus for 4 consecutive years from 1998-2001 spanning the end of President Clinton’s Administration. The Treasury Department reported a record surplus of $237 billion in Fiscal Year (FY)2000. This was the last Federal Government Surplus. Clinton was the last President to balance the Federl Budget. Look what shape G.W. Bush left us when he left office in 2009. It was called “The Great Recession”.

    Reply
  36. Ken Keil says:
    July 22, 2026 at 4:43 am

    The costs went up higher and faster under Biden. Did you thank him?

    Reply
  37. Bruce Brown says:
    July 22, 2026 at 3:56 pm

    Kim,
    EVERYTHING is Trumps fault!!!!

    Reply
  38. M. G. says:
    July 23, 2026 at 12:09 pm

    It was not President Trump who caused the high inflationary costs. He is trying to get the spending down while the democrats are still wanting to keep increasing spending. Remember, he is trying to get the Congress,(democrats), to pass a bill that cancels Social Security taxes for us retired folks.

    Reply
  39. stephen b salvo says:
    July 24, 2026 at 12:37 am

    I voted 3 times for Trump & appreciate him as the best President we can have with the strong types of leaders in China, Russia, North Korea & Iran. However, the statement that there are no more taxes on social security is inaccurate, & I heard him make this exact statement on tv 3-4 months ago.

    Reply
  40. Tammy says:
    July 27, 2026 at 12:38 am

    We got a 12k tax deduction in the big beautiful bill. 6k each. We do pay taxes on our social security but only about 2k each The 12k tax decduction keeps us in a lower tax bracket and it will continue thru 2028. Because of the Byrd rule changes can’t be made to your actual social security benefits. We will take the 12k deduction all day long.

    Reply
  41. Sara J Gardner says:
    July 29, 2026 at 3:02 pm

    We paid taxes all those many years we worked and I am 76 years old and still working because I can’t live on social security that just sucks like it is the rich get richer and the poorer get poorer what is the world coming to, seniors are just a forgotten, even doctors say now ell you know you are old what the hell maybe one day they will be there and how when their doctor can tell them that statement see how they feel. I just think we seniors are getting bad rap and the government knows it and yes, WE did pay social security on this money, and it is ours, so we are screwed. Thank you, government, this money was supposed to be set aside, but it was spent for something else and now we as seniors have to suffer. That’s all.

    Reply
  42. Kathy A. says:
    August 1, 2026 at 6:04 pm

    Yep!!!!! That’s the Democraps for you!!!!!

    Reply
  43. Kathy A. says:
    August 1, 2026 at 6:13 pm

    You’ve got that right!!! We were supposed to get $50.00 a month on our OTC cards but, thanks to the illegals, we’re only getting that once every three months!!!

    Reply
  44. Jonathan McTier says:
    August 3, 2026 at 2:32 pm

    Unsubscribe me

    Reply
  45. Billy says:
    August 10, 2026 at 7:31 pm

    Thanks to president Trump we no longer pay taxes on our social security

    Reply
  46. Chevy says:
    August 12, 2026 at 6:44 am

    I’m so sick and fuc@@k tired of these people shit I wish they would all go to Hell without an egg basket if the rich think they will have wealth in heaven or hell I hope they all hurry get there so they find out,

    I could barely eat
    You mother fuck@@ers

    Reply
  47. Norma Patton says:
    August 12, 2026 at 2:54 pm

    The cut off age for Social security increase seems to be 85 y.o., what about the person who is almost 89 y.o. their bills increase like everyone else. also the food bill is higher because you pay more and get less for items that ones who make the stuff uses artificial sugar, instead of salt spices and the prices are much higher. The COLA that Social Security recipients received was just 2% and then the Medicare B premium also is more. I never understood how a person making $16,000.00 a year is paying the same amount for Medicare B as the person who is making $80,000.00 look at the difference,

    Reply
  48. Denise L Garcia says:
    August 12, 2026 at 11:41 pm

    How do you blame President Trump? He is getting it so we don’t have to pay taxes on Social Security at all. Did the Biden years do anything to help our seniors? NO, stop blaming the one person who is trying to make easier for the seniors. Maybe do a little research before you make your comments.

    Reply
  49. Denise L Garcia says:
    August 12, 2026 at 11:45 pm

    Oh grow up you child. would you rather those puppets Biden and Harris were running the company?

    Reply
  50. DK Williams says:
    August 13, 2026 at 3:20 am

    Amen !
    SS should NOT be taxed
    The Govt got interest on our SS deposits all those years, how about they refund interest to those retired!
    Why not: because they pilfered the SS fund for years for use on many things unrelated to SS !

    Reply
  51. just me says:
    August 13, 2026 at 6:07 pm

    Always Trump , it is the left that won’t work with or pass a darn thing to help all Americans. If they would pass the save act everything would be better but the left wants Trump to look bad before the mid terms. Think before you thank someone for something they have no control of! I always wondered growing up how one person can control a whole country to communist and now I know not taking the time to really inform them selves and bringing in the lies of the liars to lie even more

    Reply
  52. just me says:
    August 13, 2026 at 6:11 pm

    Amen to that! The senate and all the America haters are the ones that are at fault with all this and if you don’t know that then you need to wake up and stop blaming Trump for everything! educate yourself and learn the truth!!

    Reply
  53. just me says:
    August 13, 2026 at 6:23 pm

    Puppet! Us loosing our country will be your fault and all you who choose to be pulled around by your nose hair! tThe left does not cares about us or this country and I say we need to throw all of you out of our country! American or not,, if you hate it here we need to give you what you want and throw all of you out and let you go to what ever communist country you want! just get the heck out. Throw them out !! throw them out!! God said killing is a sin bu throwing them out isn’t!!

    Reply
  54. Dan says:
    August 15, 2026 at 1:09 am

    Here in Pa. We pay no taxes on any retirement money. Unless you’re bringing home a large retirement fund. Keep voting Democrat and soon you won’t have any retirement. Party of losers, liars and thieves. Trump Rules

    Reply

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